Ceresana: Market study Carbon Black

05-Apr-2013 - Germany

We forecast global demand for Carbon Black to rise dynamically: market volume is expected to increase by more than 3.1 million tonnes until 2019. The major share of Carbon Black consumption is processed in the production of tires of all sorts; this segment consumed over 7.8 million tonnes in 2011. Carbon Black is used as filler in both tires as well as in numerous rubber products, for example hoses or mechanical seals. Other industrial sectors like plastics, paints, varnishes and printing inks utilize Carbon Black to convey the color 'black' to their products.

In the center of attention: automobiles

The automotive industry is the largest sales market for Carbon Black. Its development is decisive for both the tire segment as well as the utilization of a wide range of rubber products. On average, manufacturers of Carbon Black have been able to profit from the sound development of the automotive market in the past eight years. Global production of passenger cars rose from 42 million units in 2003 to almost 60 million units in 2011. Output statistics of utility vehicles such as trucks, busses and vans recorded an additional 20 million units that year. Not only the manufacturing of new automobiles is of importance, but also the number of cars already in stock. In the past years, it rose by 2.7% p.a. in the passenger cars segment and by 4.6% p.a. in the utility vehicle branch. In 2010, the threshold of 1 billion vehicles was surpassed for the first time.

Dominating sales market: Asia-Pacific

Main growth motor will be Asia-Pacific; we expect consumption and production volumes in this region to increase by more than 4.5% p.a. each. China is dominating the market by single-handedly consuming more than 30% of total global Carbon Black market volume. Furthermore, this region will become a net-exporter in the future. Had Asia-Pacific used to import Carbon Black in the past, massive expansions of capacity will result in exports outperforming imports in the upcoming years.

Risk factor commodity price

Production costs and prices of Carbon Black are mainly influenced by the prices for raw materials and vary greatly due to fluctuating prices for crude oil. The increase of the average global price for crude oil from US$27/barrel in 2003 to more than US$108/barrel in 2011 had already caused prices to rise significantly in the past. They rose by almost 130% in the same period. Even though we forecast the rise of production costs to slow down in the upcoming years, pressure on margins for manufacturers of Carbon Black will continue to increase. Accordingly, we expect to see ongoing consolidation processes among the manufacturers and a localization of production in individual countries.

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